1531 Noble Park Dr

Sienna, TX 77459

$299,900D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,198 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 170 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$1,033
• HOA: −$129
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-521/mo
• Annual: $-6,250/yr
• Cap rate: 4.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.44%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (27.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (6.5% below list).
• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $218k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.