Is 1531 Noble Park Dr in Sienna, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 3.6% cap rate and $-754/mo modeled cash flow at a $339,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1531 Noble Park Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,794/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 41.91

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +14.6/15.0
Schools +5.6/10.0
Cash flow +5.3/30.0
Appreciation +4.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0

$339,900

1531 Noble Park Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,198 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,129 sqft lot Garage $155/sqft · 16% below area Est $404k · 16% under $129/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Cute 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 story home featuring an open concept floorplan. Downstairs you will find a home study/office, half bath, and a large living dining combo space with island kitchen and breakfast bar, tons of cabinets and lots of natural light. Upstairs is where all 3 bedrooms are located, plus the utility room for added convenience. Primary bedroom suite features nice walk in shower and dual sinks. Other features include covered patio, fenced yard and 2 car attached garage with alley access.

Key facts

Island kitchen
Home study
Tons of cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-754 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (35.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (17.8% below list).
Recommended offer: $218k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1771 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 75d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.

Recommended offer $218,028 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 3.63%
Cash-on-cash: -9.51%
DSCR: 0.58
GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $403,852
List price: $339,900
Delta: -15.84%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10750 Blossom River Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	2,033 (-8%)	3mo	$400,000	$197	67
10710 Hidden Rock Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,156 (-2%)	3mo	$449,000	$208	66
10114 Native Grove Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,122 (-4%)	1mo	$329,999	$156	66
1214 Woodmont Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,033 (-8%)	3mo	$399,000	$196	65
10902 Crescent Spring Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (-3%)	3mo	$460,000	$215	65
1147 Village Falls Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,181 (-1%)	1mo	$460,000	$211	62
1122 Mills Cove Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,156 (-2%)	2mo	$464,000	$215	59
10723 Verdant Hl	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,524 (+15%)	1mo	$424,000	$168	56
1223 Rolling Crest Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,960 (-11%)	3mo	$385,000	$196	56
1430 Watermont Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,504 (+14%)	2mo	$464,900	$186	51
11043 Valley Fort Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+5%)	2mo	$447,940	$195	51
10934 Middle Ridge Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,960 (-11%)	3mo	$420,000	$214	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.2%
Equity multiple: 0.04×
Total profit: $-91,518
Equity at exit: $71,287

10-year hold

IRR: -25.1%
Equity multiple: -0.62×
Total profit: $-153,920
Equity at exit: $66,029

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 96 active · 45 under contract
Months of supply: 11.8 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $449,498 ($192/sqft)
Median days on market: 131 d
This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -4.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

Home prices YoY: -0.8%
Rents YoY: -0.1%
Active inventory: 1771
Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,794 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
Tax from tax record: −$908 /mo · $10,901/yr
Insurance: −$142
HOA: −$129
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
Net cashflow: $-754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,749

Max offer price $218,028

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-562	-5% $-658	+0% $-754	+5% $-850	+10% $-947
Rent	-10% $-975	-5% $-865	+0% $-754	+5% $-644	+10% $-534
Rate	-1.0pp $-583	-0.5pp $-668	base $-754	+0.5pp $-842	+1.0pp $-932

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $84,975
Closing costs: $10,197
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10602 William Park Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,500	$1.64	84d	1	0.06mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	74d	1	0.09mi
10614 Kingston Spring Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,499	$1.25	47d	1	0.13mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	139d	1	0.42mi
1539 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2812	$1,495	$0.53	24d	1	0.91mi
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	24d	1	0.93mi
1618 Rosedale Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2990	$3,400	$1.14	81d	1	1.21mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	1.28mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	117d	1	1.34mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	71d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Lease not considered
HOA & community: SPIRA associationAnnual association fee of $1,543Association maintains clubhouse, common areas, and recreation facilitiesCommunity has curbs and gutters

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesAlley access
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property2,198 total building areaBuilt in 2024Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features: DeckPatioSubdivision settingAsphalt road access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second level, ~13x17)Bedroom (second level, ~10x12)Bedroom (second level, ~10x10)
Flooring: CarpetPlankVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboTub with showerCeiling fansLiving/dining room combo
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $339,900 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $339,900 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $339,900 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $339,900 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $339,900 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $339,900 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $339,900 Active 118 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $339,900 Active 117 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $339,900 Active 116 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $339,900 Active 115 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $339,900 Active 114 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $339,900 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $339,900 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $339,900 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $339,900 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $339,900 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $339,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $339,900 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $339,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $339,900 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $339,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $339,900 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $339,900 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $339,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $339,900 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $339,900 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $339,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $339,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $339,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $339,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $339,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $339,900 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $339,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $339,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $339,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $339,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $339,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $339,900 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $339,900 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $339,900 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $339,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $339,900 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $339,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $339,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $339,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $339,900 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $339,900 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $339,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $339,900 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $339,900 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $10,901 · $908/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $10,901 · $908/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $33,528
− Mortgage interest: −$19,040
− Property taxes: −$10,901
− Insurance: −$1,700
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,682
− Management: −$2,682
− HOA: −$1,548
− Depreciation: −$9,888
Taxable loss: −$14,913

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,579
After-tax cash flow: $-5,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,990–$32,970 screening

This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern open-concept floor plan, hardwood floors, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the interior.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Donald Leonetti El B+ TX #220/4,322 Nat'l #4,825/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Fort Bend ISD
NCES district ID: 4819650
Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $82,360
Composite: 44.61/100
National rank: #2779
State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

Census place: Sienna, TX
County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 84,221
Household income: $129,151
Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
Current HPI: 212.3573
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-07-09 Price Changed $339,900 HARMLS
2026-05-21 Listed $349,900 HARMLS
2024-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
2024-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+984.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,901 · +984.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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