127 Carousel Ave

Pioneer, FL 33935

$299,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-256/mo
• Annual: $-3,074/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.4% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#727 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $299k implies a 1962% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,291/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.