127 Carousel Ave · Pioneer, FL 33935

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · Land · 34 Days on market

Built 2025 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

No impact fees! Build your dream home on this . 23 acre lot. The area has central water, you just have to hook up to it. Septic is required.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Metal roof
• Golden finishes

Tags

• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• EXTRA LARGE TILES
• WALK IN SHOWERS
• GOLDEN FINISHES
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; Association fee listed as 0

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 covered space); Driveway; Paved parking
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level: 1; Northeast facing; New construction
• Construction: New construction; Block, concrete and stucco construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: No additional exterior features listed; Southwest exposure; Rectangular lot; Public maintained paved road; Municipal irrigation source

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator (with ice maker); Icemaker
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Open living/dining area; Pantry; Separate shower (shower only); Walk-in closet(s); Split bedroom layout; Single hung windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#727 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hendry (town): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #65 of 73 in FL (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 942 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 557 units permitted in Hendry County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,291/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 498% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hendry County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $299k implies a 1962% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,137 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $146,564
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $444,505
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33935

• Home prices YoY: 16.3%
• Active inventory: 942
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $261,936

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 Ella Jean Pl Labelle, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	23d	1	0.61mi
634 Royce Rd Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$2,100	$1.44	14d	1	0.69mi
1305 Andover Dr Labelle, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,400	$1.37	23d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $299,000 Active
16. 2022-05-27
    soldstatus $14,500 Closed 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    No impact fees! Build your dream home on this . 23 acre lot. The area has central water, you just have to hook up to it. Septic is required.

17. 2022-04-28
    status Pending 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    No impact fees! Build your dream home on this . 23 acre lot. The area has central water, you just have to hook up to it. Septic is required.

18. 2022-04-09
    listed $16,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    No impact fees! Build your dream home on this . 23 acre lot. The area has central water, you just have to hook up to it. Septic is required.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$8,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,999
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hendry
• NCES district ID: 1200780
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $37,043
• Composite: 31.16/100
• National rank: #6054
• State rank: #65 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pioneer

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #15534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hendry County · 23,186 people
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,186
• Household income: $57,009
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 498.0

Population outlook (Hendry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,866 people
• By 2030: 38,558 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 37,743 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 36,117 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 30,070 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 21,966 · -43.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 39% Two or more races 21% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 50%

Political lean MEDSL · Hendry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.3) · D 30.4% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -38.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.3 2020: R+23.0 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+5.9 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.20%
• Current HPI: 537.4928
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clewiston, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1768.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $299,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-05-27 Sold (MLS) $14,500 FORTMLS
• 2022-04-28 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-04-09 Listed $16,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $399 · -21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.