L6 B4 Bruns Lake Overlook

Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$1,575,000B

144 bd · 144.0 ba · 7,372 sqft · Built 2025 · MultiFamily · Pending · 385 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $28,053/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,259
• Tax + insurance: −$2,625
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,891
• Net cashflow: $11,277/mo
• Annual: $135,329/yr
• Cap rate: 14.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.69%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.78%
• Cash to close: $441,000

Investor read

• This is a 12 × 12-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.57M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($135k/yr) — positive. Per door: $940/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $1.57M).
• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.39M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $47k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Lakes Elementary (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 297 students, 50% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 125% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $441k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $28,053/mo this rent would consume 379% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.