L6 B4 Bruns Lake Overlook · Meadow Lakes, AK 99623

$1,575,000

144 bd · 144.0 ba · 7,372 sqft · MultiFamily · 385 Days on market

Built 2025 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 12 units. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Looking to invest in your future and receive passive income for years to come. This newly designed 12 unit plan. Each unit has 1 bedroom, 1 full bath with in-unit laundry. Enjoy 5-star in-floor radiant heat, beautiful solid wood cabinets, quartz counter tops and spacious open-concept living area with LVP throughout. Call today for this great investment in your future.

Key facts

• Detached 4-plex plan
• 1 acre lot
• 12 parking spots

Tags

• DETACHED 4-PLEX PLAN
• 5-STAR IN-FLOOR RADIANT HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 12 × 12-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.57M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($135k/yr) — positive. Per door: $940/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $1.57M).
• Recommended offer: $1.39M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.9% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Meadow Lakes Elementary (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #116 of 156 statewide, top 77%, 297 students, 50% FRL); Houston Middle School (329 students, 0% FRL); Houston High School (math 22% / reading 31%, grade F, #41 of 61 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $28,053/mo this rent would consume 379% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $47k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $441k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 385 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 125% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $1,386,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 385 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.69%
• DSCR: 2.37
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $468,276
• Equity at exit: $234,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $1,354,157
• Equity at exit: $136,177

Cash invested: $441,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 56.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $28,053 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,969 /mo · $23,625/yr
• Insurance: −$656
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,891
• Net cashflow: $11,277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,778

Max offer price $1,575,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12,366	-5% $11,822	+0% $11,277	+5% $10,733	+10% $10,189
Rent	-10% $9,061	-5% $10,169	+0% $11,277	+5% $12,385	+10% $13,494
Rate	-1.0pp $12,071	-0.5pp $11,678	base $11,277	+0.5pp $10,869	+1.0pp $10,454

12-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 12× units	12	—	$28,056
Total (12 units)			$28,053

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $393,750
• Closing costs: $47,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-09-19
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-29
   status Active
3. 2025-02-03
   price $1,575,000
4. 2024-08-02
   listed $700,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $336,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$88,224
• − Property taxes: −$23,625
• − Insurance: −$7,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,931
• − Management: −$26,931
• − Depreciation: −$45,818
• Taxable income: $117,232
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$28,136
• After-tax cash flow: $107,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Meadow Lakes

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #24629

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadow Lakes, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• City population: 23,424
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-19 Pending — AKMLS
• 2025-08-29 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-02-03 Price Changed $1,575,000 AKMLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed $700,000 AKMLS