1941 Hertel Ave

Buffalo, NY 14214

$1,895,000B

264 bd · None ba · 12,800 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Pending · 246 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $27,648/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,938
• Tax + insurance: −$1,143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,806
• Net cashflow: $10,762/mo
• Annual: $129,140/yr
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.34%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $530,600

Investor read

• This is a 12 × 22-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($129k/yr) — positive. Per door: $897/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $1.90M).
• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.67M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $580k; list at $1.90M implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $531k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $27,648/mo this rent would consume 570% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1820% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.