1941 Hertel Ave · Buffalo, NY 14214

$1,895,000

264 bd · None ba · 12,800 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1940 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 12 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

1941 & 1945 Hertel Avenue are two, all brick, 3 story. identical, 12-unit apartment buildings, totaling 24 units in the heart of North Buffalo. The buildings both have separate utilities, full basements, and a parking lot for all 24 units. They are comprised of 22 1-bedroom units and 2 studio apartments. There is 1 studio apartment on the first floor of each building and 1 laundry room on the first floor of each building. includes 1945 Hertel Tax ID: 140200-079-690-0001-004-000.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• All brick
• 3 story

Tags

• ALL BRICK
• 3 STORY
• FULL BASEMENTS
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 12 × 22-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($129k/yr) — positive. Per door: $897/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($28k rent vs $1.90M).
• Recommended offer: $1.67M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $27,648/mo this rent would consume 570% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1820% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $57k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $531k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.67M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $580k; list at $1.90M implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,667,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.34%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $457,887
• Equity at exit: $282,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $1,627,323
• Equity at exit: $163,845

Cash invested: $530,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14214

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 68.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,938
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,237/yr
• Insurance: −$790
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,806
• Net cashflow: $10,762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,026

Max offer price $1,895,000

Occupancy floor 56%

12-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 12× units	22	—	$27,648
Total (12 units)			$27,648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $473,750
• Closing costs: $56,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-03
   price $1,895,000
4. 2025-09-18
   listed $2,100,000 Active
5. 2006-05-23
   soldstatus $580,000
6. 1993-12-29
   soldstatus $315,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,237 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,131 · $1,511/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,894/yr (+$1,158/mo · 327.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $331,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$106,149
• − Property taxes: −$4,237
• − Insurance: −$9,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,542
• − Management: −$26,542
• − Depreciation: −$55,127
• Taxable income: $103,703
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24,889
• After-tax cash flow: $104,251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,314
• Household income: $58,228
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1820.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 31% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -282.52%
• Current HPI: 373.377
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.81%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+501.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-03 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $1,895,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-18 Listed $2,100,000 WNYREIS
• 2006-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $580,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,237 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.