43 Sandys Ln

Horseheads, NY 14845

$298,900B

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,276 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,567
• Tax + insurance: −$753
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$945
• Net cashflow: $1,235/mo
• Annual: $14,819/yr
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.71%
• DSCR: 1.79
• 1% rule: 1.51%
• Cash to close: $83,692

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $299k).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#494 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools B; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Horseheads Central School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #347 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $299k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.1% in Horseheads — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.