3973 Lake Bayshore Dr #503

South Bradenton, FL 34205

$78,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1978 · Condo · Active · 168 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,539/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$646
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $31/mo
• Annual: $373/yr
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.71%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 1.97%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $78k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($373/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in FL, #3,092 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert H. Prine Elementary School (math 46% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,560 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 744 students, 75% FRL); W. D. Sugg Middle School (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #462 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,010 students, 72% FRL); Southeast High School (math 25% / reading 34%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,716 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 51% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.4%/yr); 444 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→32/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in South Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?