145 Nolker Dr

Lawson, MO 64062

$149,900D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1973 · Other · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $10/mo
• Annual: $118/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($118/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (14.0% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $129k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#197 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lawson R-Xiv (rural): math 46% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #28 of 324 in MO (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 415 students, 31% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 42% / reading 54%, grade C-, #84 of 391 statewide, top 22%, 337 students, 29% FRL); Lawson High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 338 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.