145 Nolker Dr · Lawson, MO 64062

$149,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,260 sqft · Other public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1973 0.25 ac lot $119/sqft · 41% below area Est $194k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car) with garage facing the front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Metal fencing; Not in a flood plain

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Ranch floor plan; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10 ($118/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#197 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lawson R-Xiv (rural): math 46% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #28 of 324 in MO (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elem. (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #159 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 415 students, 31% FRL); Lawson Middle (math 42% / reading 54%, grade C-, #84 of 391 statewide, top 22%, 337 students, 29% FRL); Lawson High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 338 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Ray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ray County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $128,906 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,763
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -22.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-23,662
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-19,789
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64062

• Home prices YoY: -6.1%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,920/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $52	+0% $10	+5% $-33	+10% $-75
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-41	+0% $10	+5% $61	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $48	base $10	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-69

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $149,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-04-24
   historical $149,900 12-char remark
5. 2019-03-21
   soldstatus Sold 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

6. 2019-02-24
   historical Contingent - Accepting Backup Offers 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

7. 2019-01-29
   price $115,000 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

8. 2018-11-21
   status Active 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

9. 2018-10-23
   historical Contingent - Accepting Backup Offers 342-char remark

   Show marketing remark (342 chars)

   Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

10. 2018-10-12
    status Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

11. 2018-09-22
    historical 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

12. 2018-09-16
    status Pending 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

13. 2018-09-15
    historical
14. 2018-09-14
    listed $120,000 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

15. 2018-09-14
    listed $120,000

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Back on market at no fault to seller. Buyer's financing fell through. Great home in the heart of Lawson. Three bedroom home move in ready. Big basement that can be turned into your man cave or additional family room. Big backyard for the kids or pets. Drive way and back deck large enough to have family and friends over and not feel crowded.

16. 2013-08-16
    soldstatus
17. 2012-10-17
    listed $87,500
18. 2009-05-14
    soldstatus
19. 2008-06-09
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,920 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,920
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,433
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$584
• After-tax cash flow: $702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawson R-Xiv
• NCES district ID: 2918220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,448
• Composite: 44.55/100
• National rank: #2787
• State rank: #28 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lawson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #10156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawson, MO
• Population (ZIP): 6,752

Population outlook (Ray County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,420 people
• By 2030: 20,507 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 18,550 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 16,516 · -22.9%
• By 2075: 12,899 · -39.8%
• By 2100: 10,413 · -51.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ray

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.1% · R 73.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.2pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+45.0 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+3.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 323.5321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+76.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $149,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $149,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-21 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-24 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-29 Price Changed $115,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-21 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-23 Contingent — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-12 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-22 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-16 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-15 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Listed $120,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-14 Listed $120,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-16 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-17 Listed $87,500 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-14 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-09 Listed $85,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,920 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.