20725 Horseshoe Bend Rd

Diamond City, AR 72644

$147,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 103 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,081/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-431/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $41,412

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-431/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (26.9% below list).
• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#107 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lead Hill School District (rural): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #166 of 238 in AR (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $148k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.4% in Diamond City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.