20725 Horseshoe Bend Rd · Diamond City, AR 72644

$147,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,376 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1971 0.85 ac lot $107/sqft · 29% below area Est $208k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Work from home or work from vacation. This two bedroom cottage has fiber optic cable available for true high-speed internet and provides a view of the lake too. The property joins the Corps of engineer’s line around Bull Shoals Lake near the towns of Diamond City and Lead Hill for good boat launch sites and has a great seasonal view of lake. A large flat lot that is perimeter fenced has plenty of parking space for boats or other toys and there is space to build a shop or garage. The home is older but has had love thrown at it with newer kitchen appliances and recent metal roof and floor leveling. The gas log fireplace used to be a wood burner and might be able to be put back if you prefer wood. The large propane tank is owned and conveys with property and serves the cookstove as well. If you use this for a VRBO or a vacation home you could quickly become very popular with your friends! It is only 36 miles from Branson Missouri. (Property being sold AS-IS)

Key facts

• Large flat lot
• View of the lake
• Perimeter fenced

Tags

• VIEW OF THE LAKE
• GOOD BOAT LAUNCH SITES
• LARGE FLAT LOT
• PERIMETER FENCED
• PLENTY OF PARKING SPACE
• NEWER KITCHEN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-431/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $142k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.4% in Diamond City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#107 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lead Hill School District (rural): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #166 of 238 in AR (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (72 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Boone County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $148k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $108,119 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,329
• List price: $147,900
• Delta: -29.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.7% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $29,206
• Equity at exit: $81,119

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $91,409
• Equity at exit: $137,823

Cash invested: $41,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72644

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,081 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$776
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $141,558

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $6	+0% $-36	+5% $-78	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-79	+0% $-36	+5% $7	+10% $50
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $2	base $-36	+0.5pp $-74	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,975
• Closing costs: $4,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,900 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $147,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,900 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,900 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,900 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,900 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $147,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,900 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,900 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $147,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,900 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,900 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    price $147,900 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Work from home or work from vacation. This two bedroom cottage has fiber optic cable available for true high-speed internet and provides a view of the lake too. The property joins the Corps of engineer’s line around Bull Shoals Lake near the towns of Diamond City and Lead Hill for good boat launch sites and has a great seasonal view of lake. A large flat lot that is perimeter fenced has plenty of parking space for boats or other toys and there is space to build a shop or garage. The home is older but has had love thrown at it with newer kitchen appliances and recent metal roof and floor leveling. The gas log fireplace used to be a wood burner and might be able to be put back if you prefer wood. The large propane tank is owned and conveys with property and serves the cookstove as well. If you use this for a VRBO or a vacation home you could quickly become very popular with your friends! It is only 36 miles from Branson Missouri. (Property being sold AS-IS)

18. 2026-03-10
    listed $159,900 Active 975-char remark

    Show marketing remark (975 chars)

    Work from home or work from vacation. This two bedroom cottage has fiber optic cable available for true high-speed internet and provides a view of the lake too. The property joins the Corps of engineer’s line around Bull Shoals Lake near the towns of Diamond City and Lead Hill for good boat launch sites and has a great seasonal view of lake. A large flat lot that is perimeter fenced has plenty of parking space for boats or other toys and there is space to build a shop or garage. The home is older but has had love thrown at it with newer kitchen appliances and recent metal roof and floor leveling. The gas log fireplace used to be a wood burner and might be able to be put back if you prefer wood. The large propane tank is owned and conveys with property and serves the cookstove as well. If you use this for a VRBO or a vacation home you could quickly become very popular with your friends! It is only 36 miles from Branson Missouri. (Property being sold AS-IS)

19. 2025-08-14
    historical
20. 2025-05-28
    status Active
21. 2025-05-20
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2025-02-14
    listed $174,500 Active
23. 2025-02-14
    listed $174,500 New Listing
24. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $76,500
25. 2021-06-28
    soldstatus $76,500
26. 2021-04-15
    listed $76,500
27. 2008-04-14
    soldstatus $87,000
28. 2005-06-14
    soldstatus $76,575

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $947 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$313/yr (+$26/mo · 49.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,285
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,038
• − Management: −$1,038
• − Depreciation: −$4,303
• Taxable loss: −$3,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $304/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lead Hill School District
• NCES district ID: 0503420
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $32,310
• Composite: 23.24/100
• National rank: #7935
• State rank: #166 of 238 in AR

Livability — Diamond City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #10788

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 123
• Population (ZIP): 2,640

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,238 people
• By 2030: 36,808 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 35,597 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 34,197 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 30,503 · -18.1%
• By 2100: 25,797 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 16.7% · R 81.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.70%
• Current HPI: 226.9247
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+93.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $147,900 MHMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $159,900 MHMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-05-28 Relisted — MHMLS
• 2025-05-20 Contingent — MHMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $174,500 CARMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listed $174,500 MHMLS
• 2021-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records
• 2021-06-28 Sold (MLS) $76,500 NWARMLS
• 2021-04-15 Listed $76,500 NWARMLS
• 2008-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $76,575 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.