5316 Orchard Pass

Jonesboro, AR 72404

$211,400D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,109
• Tax + insurance: −$352
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-216/mo
• Annual: $-2,591/yr
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $59,192

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (25.5% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley View School District (rural): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #4 of 238 in AR (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley View Intermediate School (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #38 of 454 statewide, top 9%, 893 students, 30% FRL); Valley View Junior High School (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #12 of 201 statewide, top 6%, 712 students, 25% FRL); Valley View High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #38 of 292 statewide, top 14%, 631 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.