5316 Orchard Pass · Jonesboro, AR 72404

$211,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $185/sqft · at area comps Est $217k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance and modern design. Upon entry is a comfortable living room that shares an open plan with a modern kitchen. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side near a full bathroom, while a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Open plan

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $211k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-216 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#145 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley View School District (rural): math 55% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #4 of 238 in AR (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Valley View Intermediate School (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #38 of 454 statewide, top 9%, 893 students, 30% FRL); Valley View Junior High School (math 54% / reading 65%, grade B, #12 of 201 statewide, top 6%, 712 students, 25% FRL); Valley View High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #38 of 292 statewide, top 14%, 631 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 926 units permitted in Craighead County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Craighead County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,596 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.38%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,950
• List price: $211,400
• Delta: -2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5316 Orchard Pass Pass	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,143 (0%)	2mo	$206,900	$181	98
5313 Orchard Pass Pass	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+13%)	2mo	$215,900	$168	76
5237 Orchard Pass Pass	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+13%)	3mo	$208,100	$162	75
5304 Orchard Pass Pass	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+18%)	2mo	$214,900	$159	73
5238 Orchard Pass Pass	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+18%)	2mo	$216,900	$160	73
5317 Orchard Pass Pass	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+18%)	2mo	$220,900	$163	72
5241 Orchard Pass Pass	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+18%)	3mo	$212,000	$156	71
6022 Prairie Mdw	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+13%)	18mo	$200,000	$155	51
106 County Road 438	0.98mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,072 (-6%)	23mo	$145,000	$135	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-51,490
• Equity at exit: $31,520

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-76,192
• Equity at exit: $18,278

Cash invested: $59,192 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active
• Months of supply: 3.4 mo (29%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $214,900 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 173 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 72404

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,109
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$264 /mo · $3,171/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,849

Max offer price $180,155

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-70	-5% $-143	+0% $-216	+5% $-289	+10% $-362
Rent	-10% $-340	-5% $-278	+0% $-216	+5% $-154	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-109	-0.5pp $-162	base $-216	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,850
• Closing costs: $6,342
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5242 Orchard Pass Jonesboro, AR	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	93d	1	0.03mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-11
   price $207,900 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance and modern design. Upon entry is a comfortable living room that shares an open plan with a modern kitchen. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side near a full bathroom, while a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

2. 2026-03-10
   listed $208,900 Active 347-char remark

   Show marketing remark (347 chars)

   This new single-story home offers a low-maintenance and modern design. Upon entry is a comfortable living room that shares an open plan with a modern kitchen. Two secondary bedrooms are tucked away to the side near a full bathroom, while a luxurious owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,171
• − Insurance: −$1,057
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,513
• − Management: −$1,513
• − Depreciation: −$6,150
• Taxable loss: −$6,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home offers a modern design with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and functionality of the bathrooms ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — New appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and property value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Valley View Elementary School Middle Valley View Junior High School B AR #12/201 Nat'l #1,836/14,009 High Valley View High School F AR #38/292 Nat'l #7,572/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley View School District
• NCES district ID: 0513380
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,148
• Composite: 51.78/100
• National rank: #1672
• State rank: #4 of 238 in AR

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Jonesboro

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #12692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jonesboro, AR
• County: Craighead County · 122,235 people
• City population: 91,245
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,968
• Household income: $70,269
• Rent vs Own: 36.3% rent · 63.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Craighead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,235 people
• By 2030: 131,338 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 149,862 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 168,034 · +37.5%
• By 2075: 208,094 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 233,251 · +90.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 18% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Craighead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.4) · D 30.1% · R 67.5% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -37.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.4 2020: R+35.4 2016: R+35.2 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.22%
• Current HPI: 208.3772
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Jonesboro, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $207,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Listed $208,900 Zillow