28442 Thorny Brae Rd

Farmington Hills, MI 48331

$325,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,245 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,518/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$481
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $-196/mo
• Annual: $-2,349/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (22.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $252k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#64 in MI, #1,364 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D, health & safety F.
• Farmington Public School District (urban): math 45% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #78 of 540 in MI (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kenbrook Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #382 of 1,397 statewide, top 30%, 392 students, 32% FRL); Warner Middle School (math 37% / reading 56%, grade D+, #150 of 493 statewide, top 31%, 571 students, 34% FRL); North Farmington High School (math 48% / reading 67%, grade C, #95 of 713 statewide, top 14%, 1,268 students, 30% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 89 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 13 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $188k; list at $325k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Farmington Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.