6829 Allegheny Ct

Stockton, CA 95219

$269,999C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 901 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$64
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-191/mo
• Annual: $-2,294/yr
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (29.1% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $192k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mable Barron (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 672 students, 57% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $270k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.