6829 Allegheny Ct · Stockton, CA 95219

$269,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 901 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1973 3,698 sqft lot Est $319k · 15% under $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Lincoln Village West! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath half-plex offers a functional layout, private backyard, covered patio, and a chance to create value through updates and improvements. Located within the desirable Lincoln Unified School District and close to parks, shopping, dining, and commuter routes. Whether you're a first-time buyer looking to build sweat equity or an investor searching for your next project, this property offers tremendous potential in a well-established neighborhood. Bring your vision and make it your own!

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Private backyard
• Covered patio

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• CLOSE TO PARKS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO COMMUTER ROUTES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association membership (not mandatory); Quarterly HOA fee; HOA fee amount: $192 per quarter; Association provides additional community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Alley access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service: Other; Irrigation: Other
• Home design: Attached single-family residence; Built in 1973; Single-story
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac; No private pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Great room; Breakfast area; Dining/family combo; Dining/living combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mable Barron (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 672 students, 57% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $270k implies a 358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,551 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,954
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6885 Sumter Quay Cir	0.20mi	2/1.0	901 (0%)	6mo	$319,000	$354	86
6900 Allegheny Pl	0.11mi	2/1.0	903 (+0%)	10mo	$319,900	$354	86
6831 Butler Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0	901 (0%)	22mo	$325,000	$361	79
6832 Butler Ct	0.03mi	2/1.0	901 (0%)	24mo	$315,000	$350	79
3518 W Benjamin Holt Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0	902 (+0%)	12mo	$300,000	$333	71
6904 Allegheny Pl	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (+11%)	10mo	$325,000	$325	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $137,066
• Equity at exit: $243,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $417,882
• Equity at exit: $524,549

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,344/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,157

Max offer price $236,234

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-38	-5% $-115	+0% $-191	+5% $-268	+10% $-344
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-267	+0% $-191	+5% $-115	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-55	-0.5pp $-122	base $-191	+0.5pp $-261	+1.0pp $-332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,950	$2.00	25d	1	0.06mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,495	$2.06	5d	1	0.06mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,950	$2.29	12d	2	0.06mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 3 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	0.15mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 2 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,750	$2.03	45d	1	0.15mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 1 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	680	$1,450	$2.13	45d	1	0.15mi
2903 Whittier Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,995	$1.81	25d	1	0.22mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$1,850	$2.80	5d	2	0.27mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,400	$2.50	45d	1	0.27mi
3525 W Benjamin Holt Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	710	$2,015	$2.84	4d	11	0.27mi
6724 Plymouth Rd #37 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,850	$2.43	25d	1	0.29mi
3335 Riverton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,402	$2.26	21d	1	0.30mi
6408 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	615	$1,960	$3.19	4d	4	0.47mi
6353 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,975	$2.26	45d	1	0.48mi
7355 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,800	$2.02	5d	1	0.50mi
7356 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	25d	1	0.51mi
2973 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	685	$1,925	$2.81	4d	6	0.56mi
3038 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,100	$2.28	5d	1	0.62mi
3722 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.65mi
7565 Shoreline Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,255	$2.66	3d	4	0.71mi
3790 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$1,850	$1.89	25d	1	0.75mi
5858 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,872	$2.12	4d	7	0.79mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 009 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,100	$2.00	4d	1	0.89mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 010 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,075	$1.98	4d	1	0.89mi
7921 Montgomery Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,695	$1.51	45d	1	0.92mi
7912 Richland Way Stockton, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,079	$2.08	0d	7	0.92mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	4d	1	0.94mi
8035 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,179	$2.31	4d	20	1.12mi
8473 Kelley Dr Unit D Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	980	$1,650	$1.68	13d	1	1.22mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	4d	6	1.35mi
3591 Quail Lakes Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	5d	1	1.36mi
8531 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	946	$2,210	$2.34	0d	4	1.40mi
7734 Brentwood Dr Unit 11 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	25d	1	1.40mi
7718 Brentwood Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,490	$1.57	45d	1	1.41mi
7820 Brentwood Dr Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,375	$2.29	4d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $269,999 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 550-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $289,999 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,344 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$708/yr (+$59/mo · 52.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$1,344
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$7,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,712
• After-tax cash flow: $-582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+156.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 1999-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 1980-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,344 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.