8415 Porcupine Dr

Gouldsboro, PA 18466

$245,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$247
• HOA: −$149
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-148/mo
• Annual: $-1,772/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (20.8% below list).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $194k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#903 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $179k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.