8415 Porcupine Dr · Gouldsboro, PA 18466

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1978 9,147 sqft lot $224/sqft · 58% above area Est $283k · 14% under $149/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Money making Short Term Rental , AIRBNB and VRBO , 3 bedrooms 2 bath , , Hot tub , Open concept Kitchen with a large family room with FIREPLACE. , washer and dryer Located in the main section of AMENITY FILLED COMMUNITY WITH 2 LAKES, OUTSIDE POOL, CLUBHOUSE AND BEACH! Close to Skiing and Water parks, casino, shopping, resorts & so much more! Don't wait, Call for all details , and schedule your private tour today, Bring all offers.

Key facts

• Updated property
• Public sewer
• Hot tub room

Tags

• UPDATED PROPERTY
• PUBLIC WATER
• PUBLIC SEWER
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GAME ROOM
• HOT TUB ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property currently used as an investment
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee (security included); Community amenities include gated entry, security, clubhouse, pool, playground, dog park, picnic and barbecue areas, party room, recreation facilities, tennis courts, basketball court, and other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking for 4 vehicles; Two separate driveways (do not connect); Driveway with gravel surface
• Security: Community security (HOA-provided)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential house; Used as an investment; No shared/common walls; Located in the A Pocono Country Place subdivision
• Construction: Structure type: House
• Exterior features: Deck; Barbecue area; Fire pit; Rain gutters; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Range hood; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 8 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in a bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-148 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#903 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 355 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $179k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $194,022 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,302
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -13.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8191 Elk Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,134 (+4%)	2mo	$245,000	$216	78
8229 Sunset Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+4%)	2mo	$190,000	$166	76
954 Country Place Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-5%)	4mo	$205,000	$197	74
8208 Sunset Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+7%)	8mo	$240,000	$204	69
940 Country Place Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	936 (-15%)	1mo	$220,000	$235	67
1094 Country Place Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+4%)	2mo	$297,000	$261	66
8237 Natures Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+15%)	6mo	$237,500	$188	60
1143 Country Place Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,080 (-2%)	6mo	$150,000	$139	54
7696 Fawn Ln	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-8%)	2mo	$235,000	$233	52
7942 Sleepy Hollow Dr	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	964 (-12%)	5mo	$182,750	$190	51
7515 Crestview Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+14%)	3mo	$300,000	$240	47
126 Feather Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+12%)	6mo	$130,000	$106	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $11,891
• Equity at exit: $101,398

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $66,101
• Equity at exit: $149,766

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18466

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,735/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$149
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,127

Max offer price $218,911

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-78	+0% $-148	+5% $-217	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-224	+0% $-148	+5% $-71	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-85	base $-148	+0.5pp $-211	+1.0pp $-276

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
954 Country Place Dr Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	16d	1	0.23mi
954 Country Place Dr Unit H623 Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,900	$1.83	44d	1	0.23mi
7067 Vista Dr Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,250	$1.57	44d	1	0.66mi
7694 Fawn Ln Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,800	$1.60	44d	1	0.66mi
9026 Idlewild Dr Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,300	$2.15	13d	1	1.17mi
5215 Sundew Ter Tobyhanna, PA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,750	$1.46	44d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $149 · $1,788/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $245,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $245,000 Active 1864-char remark
17. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus $179,000 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Money making Short Term Rental , AIRBNB and VRBO , 3 bedrooms 2 bath , , Hot tub , Open concept Kitchen with a large family room with FIREPLACE. , washer and dryer Located in the main section of AMENITY FILLED COMMUNITY WITH 2 LAKES, OUTSIDE POOL, CLUBHOUSE AND BEACH! Close to Skiing and Water parks, casino, shopping, resorts & so much more! Don't wait, Call for all details , and schedule your private tour today, Bring all offers.

18. 2022-08-31
    soldstatus $179,000

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Money making Short Term Rental , AIRBNB and VRBO , 3 bedrooms 2 bath , , Hot tub , Open concept Kitchen with a large family room with FIREPLACE. , washer and dryer Located in the main section of AMENITY FILLED COMMUNITY WITH 2 LAKES, OUTSIDE POOL, CLUBHOUSE AND BEACH! Close to Skiing and Water parks, casino, shopping, resorts & so much more! Don't wait, Call for all details , and schedule your private tour today, Bring all offers.

19. 2022-04-21
    listed $179,000 443-char remark

    Show marketing remark (443 chars)

    Money making Short Term Rental , AIRBNB and VRBO , 3 bedrooms 2 bath , , Hot tub , Open concept Kitchen with a large family room with FIREPLACE. , washer and dryer Located in the main section of AMENITY FILLED COMMUNITY WITH 2 LAKES, OUTSIDE POOL, CLUBHOUSE AND BEACH! Close to Skiing and Water parks, casino, shopping, resorts & so much more! Don't wait, Call for all details , and schedule your private tour today, Bring all offers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,735 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,803 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,068/yr (+$89/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,735
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − HOA: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocono Mountain SD
• NCES district ID: 4219500
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,317
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3856
• State rank: #245 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gouldsboro

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #903
• US rank: #9638

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,997

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 24% Two or more races 17% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.36%
• Current HPI: 202.4134
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+36.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $245,000 PMAR
• 2022-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $179,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-31 Sold (MLS) $179,000 PMAR
• 2022-04-21 Listed $179,000 PMAR

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,735 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.