19401 Walker Rd #12

Willits, CA 95490

$18,500D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 364 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,468/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$97
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $966/mo
• Annual: $11,587/yr
• Cap rate: 73.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 239.08%
• DSCR: 11.64
• 1% rule: 7.94%
• Cash to close: $5,180

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $16k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $128 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $555 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Willits Unified (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #486 of 517 in CA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 73.2% vs local median 2.6% in Willits — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.