19401 Walker Rd #12 · Willits, CA 95490

$18,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 364 Days on market

Built 1972 16 ac lot $26/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

Key facts

• Private porch
• Community pool
• Extra storage

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• PRIVATE PORCH
• LANDSCAPED FRONT YARD
• LANDSCAPED BACK YARD
• EXTRA STORAGE
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $966 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $16k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 73.2% vs local median 2.6% in Willits — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#377 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Willits Unified (town): math 9% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #486 of 517 in CA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $128 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $555 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 364 days — a 12% lower offer ($16k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (38%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $16,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 364 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.94% ✓
• Cap rate: 73.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 239.08%
• DSCR: 11.64
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,527
• List price: $18,500
• Delta: -67.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19401 Walker Rd #7	0.00mi	2/1.0	720 (0%)	12mo	$16,000	$22	90
19401 Walker Rd #20	0.00mi	2/1.0	768 (+7%)	10mo	$50,000	$65	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.31×
• Total profit: $58,563
• Equity at exit: $2,758

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.18×
• Total profit: $130,440
• Equity at exit: $1,600

Cash invested: $5,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95490

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$97
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $966

Break-even live

Break-even rent $246

Max offer price $18,500

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,625
• Closing costs: $555
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $18,500 Active 364 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $18,500 Active 363 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $18,500 Active 362 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $18,500 Active 361 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $18,500 Active 360 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $18,500 Active 358 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $18,500 Active 357 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $22,000 Active 354 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $22,000 Active 353 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $22,000 Active 352 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $22,000 Active 351 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $22,000 Active 348 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $22,000 Active 347 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $22,000 Active 346 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,000 Active 345 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $22,000 Active 344 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    status Active 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

18. 2026-04-20
    historical Contingent (Show) 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

19. 2026-02-04
    price $22,000 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

20. 2025-11-04
    price $25,000 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

21. 2025-10-14
    status Active 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

22. 2025-10-01
    historical Contingent (Show) 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

23. 2025-08-03
    price $27,000 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

24. 2025-06-21
    listed $30,000 Active 538-char remark

    Show marketing remark (538 chars)

    Welcome to Park Side Mobile Estates! This all ages park offers a quiet country setting while being close to town. Amenities such as community pool and laundry, keep you cool and saves a trip to the laundromat. This 2 bed, 1 bath mobile with additional room and private porch has loads of potential. Nicely landscaped, front and back yards are filled with roses and cherry trees. Extra storage outside is offered with small sheds. Carport allows parking or relaxing outside, out of the elements. This is a gem waiting for the right person!

25. 2012-02-06
    listed $6,000
26. 2011-09-06
    listed $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,036
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$538
• Taxable income: $12,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,894
• After-tax cash flow: $8,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willits Unified
• NCES district ID: 0642560
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,494
• Composite: 14.14/100
• National rank: #9455
• State rank: #486 of 517 in CA

Livability — Willits

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #12923

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 14,627

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 18% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -233.81%
• Current HPI: 155.0788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $22,000 BAREIS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $25,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2025-10-01 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $27,000 BAREIS
• 2025-06-21 Listed $30,000 BAREIS
• 2012-02-06 Listed $6,000 BAREIS
• 2011-09-06 Listed $11,000 BAREIS