2602 S Kings Arms Cir

Centerville, OH 45440

$199,999D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,332 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,966/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$343
• HOA: −$206
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-540/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-540/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.7% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kettering Fairmont High School (math 49% / reading 75%, grade B-, #202 of 781 statewide, top 29%, 2,486 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $200k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.