2602 S Kings Arms Cir · Centerville, OH 45440

$199,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,332 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1975 $206/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 story condo with fireplace, 2 seperate living spaces, 2 full baths upstairs, and a private patio setting. Seller requires a Bank of America prequal letter for all offers requiring a mortgage. Sold as is, seller will make no repairs, Rm sizes est, and buyer to rely upon their own inspection.

Key facts

• Spectacular kitchen
• Updated half bath
• Stylish pantry

Tags

• UPDATED HALF BATH
• STYLISH PANTRY
• SPECTACULAR KITCHEN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE PATIO
• HOME OFFICE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed for sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Apple Management) with a monthly fee of $206; HOA covers association management, pool(s), and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Sewer available; Water available (private source); Electric service
• Home design: 2-story home; Entry level is 1
• Construction: Cedar construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 36 x 18 x 36 x 18; Residential zoning

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater (serves kitchen appliances)
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on multiple levels (total rooms: 7)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 3 bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-540/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Kettering City School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #277 of 656 in OH (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kettering Fairmont High School (math 49% / reading 75%, grade B-, #202 of 781 statewide, top 29%, 2,486 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $200k implies a 267% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $192,050 (4.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.96%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-32,406
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,833
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45440

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,121/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$206
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,023

Max offer price $192,050

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $68	-5% $12	+0% $-45	+5% $-102	+10% $-158
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-123	+0% $-45	+5% $33	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $6	base $-45	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5685 Coach Dr E Apt E Kettering, OH	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,375	$1.20	45d	1	0.59mi
6591 Brigham Sq #7 Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,500	$1.39	23d	1	0.85mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Unit NA Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,725	$1.65	4d	1	0.90mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,850	$1.73	25d	1	0.90mi
515 Kilkenny Ct Unit NA Sugarcreek Township, OH	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,545	$1.70	16d	1	0.94mi
6620 Green Branch Dr #4 Centerville, OH	2.0	2.0	987	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.00mi
4838 Wilmington Pike Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,650	$1.81	25d	1	1.02mi
1848 Chimney Ln Kettering, OH	2.0	1.0	956	$1,195	$1.25	4d	1	1.12mi
4516 Drayton Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,550	$1.77	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $206 · $2,472/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $199,999 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,121
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$2,472
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,796
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$911
• After-tax cash flow: $371/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kettering City School District
• NCES district ID: 3904418
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,353
• Composite: 51.89/100
• National rank: #1653
• State rank: #277 of 656 in OH

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #604

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, OH
• County: Greene County · 132,120 people
• City population: 38,712
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 22,358
• Household income: $82,383
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 626.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.53%
• Current HPI: 217.1026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+227.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $199,999 Dayton MLS
• 2026-06-19 Listed $200,000 Dayton MLS
• 2012-07-13 Sold (MLS) $54,500 Dayton MLS
• 2012-07-13 Sold (MLS) $54,500 Dayton MLS
• 2012-05-07 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2012-04-02 Listed $57,000 Dayton MLS
• 2010-06-30 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2008-04-30 Listed $90,000 Dayton MLS
• 2005-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $98,700 Public Records
• 2000-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,121 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.