3514 Commerce St

Damon, TX 77430

$168,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,823/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $392/mo
• Annual: $4,703/yr
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $163k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,522 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Damon ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #1,103 of 1,141 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.