3514 Commerce St · Damon, TX 77430

$168,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1949 0.31 ac lot $150/sqft · 8% below area Est $182k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3514 Commerce makes a great investment opportunity or starter home! This home has incredible potential on a large lot.The home offers character with the wood floors throughout the main area and wood/glass dining room doors. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, dining room, an extra space for an office or storage and indoor laundry room. Off of the dining room is a large sunroom to enjoy your morning coffee and evening tea. Home is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Large lot
• Sunroom

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• WOOD FLOORS
• WOOD GLASS DINING ROOM DOORS
• SUNROOM
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $392 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,522 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Damon ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #1,103 of 1,141 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,960 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,073
• List price: $168,000
• Delta: -7.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3414 Commerce St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,038 (-7%)	22mo	$168,900	$163	62
623 Bernard St	0.19mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,032 (-8%)	11mo	$235,000	$228	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $80,756
• Equity at exit: $113,408

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $216,302
• Equity at exit: $212,751

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77430

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,165/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $392

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-13
   listed $168,000 Active 452-char remark

   Show marketing remark (452 chars)

   3514 Commerce makes a great investment opportunity or starter home! This home has incredible potential on a large lot.The home offers character with the wood floors throughout the main area and wood/glass dining room doors. It features 2 bedrooms, 1 full bath, dining room, an extra space for an office or storage and indoor laundry room. Off of the dining room is a large sunroom to enjoy your morning coffee and evening tea. Home is being sold as-is.

2. 2023-01-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,165 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,074 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,910/yr (+$159/mo · 164.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$1,165
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $2,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$497
• After-tax cash flow: $4,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Damon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816260
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,296
• Composite: 20.73/100
• National rank: #13747
• State rank: #1103 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Damon

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1522
• US rank: #25981

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Damon, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,916

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.73%
• Current HPI: 312.7758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,165 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.