407 W 29th St

Higginsville, MO 64037

$145,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,235 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-845/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-845/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (25.0% below list).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Lafayette County C-1 (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #221 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Higginsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.