407 W 29th St · Higginsville, MO 64037

$145,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1956 6,499 sqft lot Est $189k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely home with many upgrades in peaceful quiet neighborhood. Home is located within walking distance of city park and water park. Home features a fenced in backyard to take care of your furbabies. 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms all on the main level. Also featuring a workout room and storage area/workshop on back of house. Garage is attached and an additional storage shed is also located in the backyard.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Formal dining room
• Laundry room

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• SUNROOM
• BONUS WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-845/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Higginsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Lafayette County C-1 (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #221 of 324 in MO (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,770 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,955
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
303 W Broadway St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+6%)	2mo	$245,000	$187	81
502 W Broadway St	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,298 (+5%)	12mo	$210,000	$162	74
623 W 26th St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,287 (+4%)	9mo	$62,500	$49	70
505 W 30th St	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,340 (+8%)	12mo	$209,000	$156	67
204 W Broadway St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,135 (-8%)	9mo	$147,000	$130	63
510 W 30th St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (-13%)	5mo	$172,000	$161	61
726 W Broadway St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-8%)	8mo	$210,000	$184	59
2118 Walnut St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (-7%)	0mo	$169,900	$148	59
107 W 23rd St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,102 (-11%)	9mo	$87,500	$79	50
411 W 22nd St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (-10%)	11mo	$169,900	$153	44
500 W 22 St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,070 (-13%)	7mo	$159,000	$149	40
601 W 22nd St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-13%)	9mo	$149,900	$139	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-28,009
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-30,279
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64037

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,307/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $132,560

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $12	-5% $-29	+0% $-70	+5% $-111	+10% $-152
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-113	+0% $-70	+5% $-27	+10% $16
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-34	base $-70	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2304 Walnut St Higginsville, MO	2.0	1.0	720	$995	$1.38	44d	1	0.37mi
217 W 17th St Higginsville, MO	2.0	1.0	960	$900	$0.94	44d	1	0.82mi
1914 Willow St Higginsville, MO	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,420	$1.37	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   status Active
3. 2026-04-01
   historical
4. 2026-03-31
   price $145,000
5. 2026-03-15
   price $180,000
6. 2026-02-11
   price $207,000
7. 2025-12-23
   listed $225,000 Active
8. 2024-03-29
   soldstatus
9. 2024-03-28
   soldstatus Closed 407-char remark

   Show marketing remark (407 chars)

   Lovely home with many upgrades in peaceful quiet neighborhood. Home is located within walking distance of city park and water park. Home features a fenced in backyard to take care of your furbabies. 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms all on the main level. Also featuring a workout room and storage area/workshop on back of house. Garage is attached and an additional storage shed is also located in the backyard.

10. 2024-02-22
    status Pending 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Lovely home with many upgrades in peaceful quiet neighborhood. Home is located within walking distance of city park and water park. Home features a fenced in backyard to take care of your furbabies. 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms all on the main level. Also featuring a workout room and storage area/workshop on back of house. Garage is attached and an additional storage shed is also located in the backyard.

11. 2024-01-24
    listed $198,900 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Lovely home with many upgrades in peaceful quiet neighborhood. Home is located within walking distance of city park and water park. Home features a fenced in backyard to take care of your furbabies. 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms all on the main level. Also featuring a workout room and storage area/workshop on back of house. Garage is attached and an additional storage shed is also located in the backyard.

12. 2021-12-29
    soldstatus
13. 2021-12-15
    soldstatus Closed 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Pride of ownership really shows on this one! Adorable 3 bed 1.5 bath ranch. House has been fully painted using custom colors from Dutch Boy (premium) paint. Newer mechanicals makes this one a great buy for anyone who wants to move in and not have any projects! Nice big yard features a covered patio, one shed and one workshop with power and beautiful landscaping. You won't want to miss out on this one! All appliances stay as well as the washer and dryer.

14. 2021-11-21
    status Pending 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Pride of ownership really shows on this one! Adorable 3 bed 1.5 bath ranch. House has been fully painted using custom colors from Dutch Boy (premium) paint. Newer mechanicals makes this one a great buy for anyone who wants to move in and not have any projects! Nice big yard features a covered patio, one shed and one workshop with power and beautiful landscaping. You won't want to miss out on this one! All appliances stay as well as the washer and dryer.

15. 2021-11-01
    status Active Under Contract 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Pride of ownership really shows on this one! Adorable 3 bed 1.5 bath ranch. House has been fully painted using custom colors from Dutch Boy (premium) paint. Newer mechanicals makes this one a great buy for anyone who wants to move in and not have any projects! Nice big yard features a covered patio, one shed and one workshop with power and beautiful landscaping. You won't want to miss out on this one! All appliances stay as well as the washer and dryer.

16. 2021-10-31
    historical 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Pride of ownership really shows on this one! Adorable 3 bed 1.5 bath ranch. House has been fully painted using custom colors from Dutch Boy (premium) paint. Newer mechanicals makes this one a great buy for anyone who wants to move in and not have any projects! Nice big yard features a covered patio, one shed and one workshop with power and beautiful landscaping. You won't want to miss out on this one! All appliances stay as well as the washer and dryer.

17. 2021-10-13
    price $165,000 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Pride of ownership really shows on this one! Adorable 3 bed 1.5 bath ranch. House has been fully painted using custom colors from Dutch Boy (premium) paint. Newer mechanicals makes this one a great buy for anyone who wants to move in and not have any projects! Nice big yard features a covered patio, one shed and one workshop with power and beautiful landscaping. You won't want to miss out on this one! All appliances stay as well as the washer and dryer.

18. 2021-09-27
    listed $169,900 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Pride of ownership really shows on this one! Adorable 3 bed 1.5 bath ranch. House has been fully painted using custom colors from Dutch Boy (premium) paint. Newer mechanicals makes this one a great buy for anyone who wants to move in and not have any projects! Nice big yard features a covered patio, one shed and one workshop with power and beautiful landscaping. You won't want to miss out on this one! All appliances stay as well as the washer and dryer.

19. 2019-09-03
    soldstatus
20. 2019-08-30
    soldstatus Sold
21. 2019-07-30
    status Pending
22. 2019-07-26
    listed $124,900 Active
23. 2018-08-20
    soldstatus
24. 2018-06-29
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2018-06-04
    status Pending
26. 2018-04-18
    listed $99,900 Active
27. 2014-10-24
    soldstatus
28. 2006-07-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,307
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,044
• − Management: −$1,044
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $-27/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lafayette County C-1
• NCES district ID: 2914400
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,595
• Composite: 29.54/100
• National rank: #6493
• State rank: #221 of 324 in MO

Livability — Higginsville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7795

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Higginsville, MO
• City population: 6,325
• Population (ZIP): 6,325

Population outlook (Lafayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,118 people
• By 2030: 29,993 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 27,436 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 24,585 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 18,426 · -40.8%
• By 2100: 12,897 · -58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lafayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.9) · D 24.9% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -48.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.9 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+26.3 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 265.7736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+45.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $145,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $180,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $207,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Listed $225,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-03-28 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-22 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-24 Listed $198,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-15 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-21 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-01 Relisted — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-31 Listing Removed — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-13 Price Changed $165,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-27 Listed $169,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-30 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-30 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-26 Listed $124,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-29 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-04 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-18 Listed $99,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,307 · +12.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.