1482 18th Ave

San Francisco, CA 94122

$1,109,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,514 sqft · Built 1926 · MultiFamily · Pending · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,816
• Tax + insurance: −$1,848
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,740
• Net cashflow: $-1,117/mo
• Annual: $-13,408/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $310,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.11M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $947k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $829k (25.3% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.04M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $829k (25.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.7%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,287/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($146k/yr) (locally 2227% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?