84 Nottingham Ter

Waterbury, CT 06704

$159,900C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1918 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-13/mo
• Annual: $-160/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-160/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#32 in CT, #2,205 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D.
• Waterbury School District (suburban): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #148 of 153 in CT (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sprague School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #512 of 553 statewide, top 94%, 407 students, 82% FRL); North End Middle School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #167 of 175 statewide, top 96%, 692 students, 88% FRL); Wilby High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #192 of 194 statewide, top 100%, 1,157 students, 85% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1918 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.0%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Waterbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1918 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.