19 Danny St

Castle Rock, CO 80109

$115,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $1,313/mo
• Annual: $15,756/yr
• Cap rate: 19.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.93%
• DSCR: 3.18
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,469 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, commute D-, cost of living F.
• Douglas County School District No. RE-1 (suburban): math 45% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #7 of 86 in CO (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Clear Sky Elementary (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #207 of 966 statewide, top 24%, 675 students, 14% FRL); Castle Rock Middle School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 748 students, 14% FRL); Castle View High School (math 38% / reading 67%, grade C-, #89 of 381 statewide, top 23%, 1,990 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 183 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,131 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (950 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $115k implies a 324% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 3.1% in Castle Rock — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.