29866 Jefferson Rd

Golden Beach, MD 20659

$389,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,194 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$435
• HOA: −$2
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $46/mo
• Annual: $555/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $109,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($555/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (17.9% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $320k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#384 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lettie Marshall Dent Elem (math 20% / reading 22%, grade F, #332 of 860 statewide, top 39%, 499 students, 35% FRL); Margaret Brent Middle (math 13% / reading 39%, grade F, #91 of 225 statewide, top 42%, 935 students, 36% FRL); Chopticon High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #73 of 222 statewide, top 34%, 1,682 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $390k implies a 609% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Golden Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.