29866 Jefferson Rd · Golden Beach, MD 20659

$389,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1977 0.34 ac lot $178/sqft · 7% below area Est $417k · 6% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of Golden Beach, where serene riverfront living meets vibrant community life. This delightful ranch-style home, built in 1977, offers a unique opportunity to embrace a lifestyle enriched by nature and community spirit. Nestled on a generous 0.34-acre lot, this property boasts water access to the picturesque river, perfect for kayaking, fishing, or simply enjoying tranquil sunsets. The community is a haven for outdoor enthusiasts, with nearby parks providing ample space for picnics, walking trails, and recreational activities. Imagine weekends spent exploring the scenic beauty of the river or gathering with neighbors at community events. The local schools are known for their commitment to excellence, ensuring a supportive environment for lifelong learning. With a cozy fireplace as the heart of the home, this residence invites warmth and comfort, making it an ideal retreat after a day of adventure. Golden Beach is not just a place to live; it's a lifestyle choice that fosters connection and community. Enjoy the benefits of pier and dock maintenance included in the association fee, allowing you to fully embrace the water-oriented lifestyle without the hassle. Experience the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation in this inviting neighborhood, where every day feels like a getaway. Don't miss your chance to make this charming property your own!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $46 ($555/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.4% in Golden Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#384 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lettie Marshall Dent Elem (math 20% / reading 22%, grade F, #332 of 860 statewide, top 39%, 499 students, 35% FRL); Margaret Brent Middle (math 13% / reading 39%, grade F, #91 of 225 statewide, top 42%, 935 students, 36% FRL); Chopticon High (math 52% / reading 67%, grade C+, #73 of 222 statewide, top 34%, 1,682 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $390k implies a 609% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,000 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,656
• List price: $389,900
• Delta: -6.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29826 Jefferson Rd	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,084 (-5%)	24mo	$432,600	$208	66
29957 William Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,090 (-5%)	10mo	$470,000	$225	64
29845 Coolidge Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,871 (-15%)	5mo	$369,900	$198	64
29835 Coolidge Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	1,946 (-11%)	14mo	$315,331	$162	62
29936 Ronald Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,996 (-9%)	13mo	$374,900	$188	59
35836 Bay Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,953 (-11%)	9mo	$500,000	$256	56
29767 Marshall Rd	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,464 (+12%)	13mo	$485,000	$197	55
40497 Waterview Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,052 (-6%)	12mo	$469,000	$229	55
40305 Beach Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-11%)	22mo	$720,000	$368	45
29713 Bruce Rd	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,920 (-12%)	21mo	$449,900	$234	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-60,319
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-49,068
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20659

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,272/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,141

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $267	-5% $157	+0% $46	+5% $-64	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-80	+0% $46	+5% $173	+10% $299
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $145	base $46	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40508 Waterview Dr Mechanicsville, MD	3.0	2.5	2604	$3,200	$1.23	20d	1	0.52mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $389,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $389,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $389,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $389,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $389,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $389,900 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $389,900 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on market $389,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,900 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    price $399,900 1384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

    Discover the charm of Golden Beach, where serene riverfront living meets vibrant community life. This delightful ranch-style home, built in 1977, offers a unique opportunity to embrace a lifestyle enriched by nature and community spirit. Nestled on a generous 0.34-acre lot, this property boasts water access to the picturesque river, perfect for kayaking, fishing, or simply enjoying tranquil sunsets. The community is a haven for outdoor enthusiasts, with nearby parks providing ample space for picnics, walking trails, and recreational activities. Imagine weekends spent exploring the scenic beauty of the river or gathering with neighbors at community events. The local schools are known for their commitment to excellence, ensuring a supportive environment for lifelong learning. With a cozy fireplace as the heart of the home, this residence invites warmth and comfort, making it an ideal retreat after a day of adventure. Golden Beach is not just a place to live; it's a lifestyle choice that fosters connection and community. Enjoy the benefits of pier and dock maintenance included in the association fee, allowing you to fully embrace the water-oriented lifestyle without the hassle. Experience the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation in this inviting neighborhood, where every day feels like a getaway. Don't miss your chance to make this charming property your own!

19. 2026-03-21
    listed $425,000 Active 1384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

    Discover the charm of Golden Beach, where serene riverfront living meets vibrant community life. This delightful ranch-style home, built in 1977, offers a unique opportunity to embrace a lifestyle enriched by nature and community spirit. Nestled on a generous 0.34-acre lot, this property boasts water access to the picturesque river, perfect for kayaking, fishing, or simply enjoying tranquil sunsets. The community is a haven for outdoor enthusiasts, with nearby parks providing ample space for picnics, walking trails, and recreational activities. Imagine weekends spent exploring the scenic beauty of the river or gathering with neighbors at community events. The local schools are known for their commitment to excellence, ensuring a supportive environment for lifelong learning. With a cozy fireplace as the heart of the home, this residence invites warmth and comfort, making it an ideal retreat after a day of adventure. Golden Beach is not just a place to live; it's a lifestyle choice that fosters connection and community. Enjoy the benefits of pier and dock maintenance included in the association fee, allowing you to fully embrace the water-oriented lifestyle without the hassle. Experience the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation in this inviting neighborhood, where every day feels like a getaway. Don't miss your chance to make this charming property your own!

20. 2026-03-11
    historical $425,000 1384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1384 chars)

    Discover the charm of Golden Beach, where serene riverfront living meets vibrant community life. This delightful ranch-style home, built in 1977, offers a unique opportunity to embrace a lifestyle enriched by nature and community spirit. Nestled on a generous 0.34-acre lot, this property boasts water access to the picturesque river, perfect for kayaking, fishing, or simply enjoying tranquil sunsets. The community is a haven for outdoor enthusiasts, with nearby parks providing ample space for picnics, walking trails, and recreational activities. Imagine weekends spent exploring the scenic beauty of the river or gathering with neighbors at community events. The local schools are known for their commitment to excellence, ensuring a supportive environment for lifelong learning. With a cozy fireplace as the heart of the home, this residence invites warmth and comfort, making it an ideal retreat after a day of adventure. Golden Beach is not just a place to live; it's a lifestyle choice that fosters connection and community. Enjoy the benefits of pier and dock maintenance included in the association fee, allowing you to fully embrace the water-oriented lifestyle without the hassle. Experience the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation in this inviting neighborhood, where every day feels like a getaway. Don't miss your chance to make this charming property your own!

21. 1979-05-10
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 1977-08-02
    soldstatus $44,950
23. 1977-08-02
    soldstatus $44,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,272 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,761 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$489/yr (+$41/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$3,272
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$6,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $2,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Golden Beach

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #384
• US rank: #21033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Golden Beach, MD
• Population (ZIP): 23,918

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.41%
• Current HPI: 260.6298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+789.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $399,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Coming Soon $425,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1979-05-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1977-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $44,950 Public Records
• 1977-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $44,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,272 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.