355 Redbud Dr

Pine Harbor, TX 75651

$69,900B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 115 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$5
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $342/mo
• Annual: $4,100/yr
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.95%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $19,572

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $70k).
• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $589 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,494 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harleton ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #104 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harleton El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 332 students, 53% FRL); Harleton J H (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 161 students, 48% FRL); Harleton H S (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #319 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 212 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.