355 Redbud Dr · Pine Harbor, TX 75651

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1979 6,011 sqft lot $5/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Absolutely Adorable A-Frame Cabin Near the Lake — Your East Texas Escape Awaits Step into this irresistibly charming A-frame cabin just a short stroll from a private lake and minutes from Lake O’ the Pines. Warm hardwood floors, rustic character, and a cozy, inviting vibe make this the kind of place you never want to leave. Fully furnished. Appliances included. Airbnb-ready from day one. Perfectly located 15 minutes from historic Jefferson, TX, and about 30 minutes from Longview for all your shopping, dining, and everyday needs. It’s also an excellent option for a snowbird home, offering comfort, convenience, and easy lock-and-leave living. The cabin could easily be upgraded to add washer and dryer connections and a washer and dryer, giving you full-time convenience without sacrificing charm. Surrounded by peaceful woods, relaxing water views, and powered by lightning-fast fiber internet, this cabin blends nature and modern comfort in all the right ways. Weekend getaway, full-time retreat, or turnkey investment—this one delivers.

Key facts

• Private lake
• Relaxing water views
• 6,011 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE LAKE
• WASHER AND DRYER CONNECTIONS
• LIGHTNING-FAST FIBER INTERNET
• RELAXING WATER VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,494 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Harleton ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #104 of 826 in TX (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harleton El (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #742 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 332 students, 53% FRL); Harleton J H (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 161 students, 48% FRL); Harleton H S (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #319 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 212 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 85 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $589 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 44% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.95%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $22,519
• Equity at exit: $23,293

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $60,041
• Equity at exit: $30,518

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75651

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$5
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $550

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $381	-5% $361	+0% $342	+5% $322	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $303	+0% $342	+5% $380	+10% $419
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $359	base $342	+0.5pp $324	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $5 · $60/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternet

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-14
   price $69,900 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Absolutely Adorable A-Frame Cabin Near the Lake — Your East Texas Escape Awaits Step into this irresistibly charming A-frame cabin just a short stroll from a private lake and minutes from Lake O’ the Pines. Warm hardwood floors, rustic character, and a cozy, inviting vibe make this the kind of place you never want to leave. Fully furnished. Appliances included. Airbnb-ready from day one. Perfectly located 15 minutes from historic Jefferson, TX, and about 30 minutes from Longview for all your shopping, dining, and everyday needs. It’s also an excellent option for a snowbird home, offering comfort, convenience, and easy lock-and-leave living. The cabin could easily be upgraded to add washer and dryer connections and a washer and dryer, giving you full-time convenience without sacrificing charm. Surrounded by peaceful woods, relaxing water views, and powered by lightning-fast fiber internet, this cabin blends nature and modern comfort in all the right ways. Weekend getaway, full-time retreat, or turnkey investment—this one delivers.

2. 2026-02-03
   listed $74,900 Active 1070-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1070 chars)

   Absolutely Adorable A-Frame Cabin Near the Lake — Your East Texas Escape Awaits Step into this irresistibly charming A-frame cabin just a short stroll from a private lake and minutes from Lake O’ the Pines. Warm hardwood floors, rustic character, and a cozy, inviting vibe make this the kind of place you never want to leave. Fully furnished. Appliances included. Airbnb-ready from day one. Perfectly located 15 minutes from historic Jefferson, TX, and about 30 minutes from Longview for all your shopping, dining, and everyday needs. It’s also an excellent option for a snowbird home, offering comfort, convenience, and easy lock-and-leave living. The cabin could easily be upgraded to add washer and dryer connections and a washer and dryer, giving you full-time convenience without sacrificing charm. Surrounded by peaceful woods, relaxing water views, and powered by lightning-fast fiber internet, this cabin blends nature and modern comfort in all the right ways. Weekend getaway, full-time retreat, or turnkey investment—this one delivers.

3. 2025-10-28
   listed $74,900 Active
4. 2025-08-14
   price $79,900
5. 2025-06-25
   price $86,500
6. 2025-05-01
   price $88,500
7. 2025-04-17
   listed $94,999 Active
8. 2023-10-05
   soldstatus Closed
9. 2023-10-05
   soldstatus
10. 2023-09-15
    status Active
11. 2023-09-01
    status Pending
12. 2023-08-24
    historical
13. 2023-08-22
    status Pending
14. 2023-08-15
    listed $64,500 Active
15. 2011-02-18
    soldstatus
16. 1998-02-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$874/yr (+$73/mo · 216.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 44% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − HOA: −$60
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $3,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$753
• After-tax cash flow: $3,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822500
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,941
• Composite: 47.59/100
• National rank: #2261
• State rank: #104 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pine Harbor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1494
• US rank: #25521

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,231

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,691 people
• By 2030: 69,317 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 69,973 · +1.9%
• By 2050: 70,090 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 70,607 · +2.8%
• By 2100: 67,546 · -1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hungarian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.6) · D 24.4% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: -31.4pp · 2024: -50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.6 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Current HPI: 103.4043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $69,900 LAAR
• 2026-02-03 Listed $74,900 LAAR
• 2025-10-28 Listed $74,900 LAAR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $79,900 LAAR
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $86,500 LAAR
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $88,500 LAAR
• 2025-04-17 Listed $94,999 LAAR
• 2023-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-05 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2023-09-15 Relisted — LAAR
• 2023-09-01 Pending — LAAR
• 2023-08-24 Delisted — LAAR
• 2023-08-22 Pending — LAAR
• 2023-08-15 Listed $64,500 LAAR
• 2011-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-02-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $405 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.