15716 Ponderosa Ln NW

Mount Savage, MD 21545

$97,500C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1912 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,174/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $287/mo
• Annual: $3,440/yr
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.60%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $27,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $98k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#320 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mt. Savage Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 220 students, 61% FRL); Mount Savage Middle (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #86 of 225 statewide, top 40%, 425 students, 54% FRL); Mountain Ridge High School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 736 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $98k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.