15716 Ponderosa Ln NW · Mount Savage, MD 21545

$97,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1912 5,836 sqft lot $75/sqft · 12% above area Est $87k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Investor Special! * * This two-story, three-bedroom, one-bath home features wood floors and charming woodwork, perfect for adding your personal touch. It also includes a large two-car detached garage. AUCTION! Do not email any offers, as the property is being sold via auction; all bids must be submitted online during the auction period. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyers premium pursuant to the Auction Terms & Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval. The property information provided is estimated and not guaranteed (including bedroom/bathroom count). Cash bids only, as you cannot access the unit. BIDDING STARTS 04/10/2026. The buyer's agent is to pay a $200 plus sales tax offer management fee at closing of an accepted offer.

Key facts

• 5,836 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1912

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#320 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mt. Savage Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 220 students, 61% FRL); Mount Savage Middle (math 15% / reading 38%, grade F, #86 of 225 statewide, top 40%, 425 students, 54% FRL); Mountain Ridge High School (math 32% / reading 72%, grade D+, #100 of 222 statewide, top 47%, 736 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $98k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $91,650 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.60%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,884
• List price: $97,500
• Delta: 12.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15919 Foundry Row NW	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,287 (-1%)	7mo	$173,000	$134	79
12806 New Row Rd NW	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,304 (+1%)	21mo	$50,000	$38	78
12706 Old Row Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,264 (-2%)	17mo	$7,500	$6	76
15516 Mount Savage	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-1%)	17mo	$16,500	$13	74
15506 Iron Rail St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,386 (+7%)	4mo	$85,000	$61	72
15422 Iron Rail St NW	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,323 (+2%)	23mo	$129,000	$98	64
12703 Old Row	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (-10%)	19mo	$92,900	$79	57
15941 Foundry Row Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,104 (-15%)	5mo	$24,000	$22	53
16112 Calla Hill Rd NW	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,432 (+10%)	7mo	$129,900	$91	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $28,132
• Equity at exit: $41,851

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $76,929
• Equity at exit: $62,992

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21545

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,070/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $811

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $342	-5% $314	+0% $287	+5% $259	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $240	+0% $287	+5% $333	+10% $379
Rate	-1.0pp $336	-0.5pp $311	base $287	+0.5pp $261	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $97,500 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,500 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,500 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,500 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,500 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,500 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,500 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,500 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,500 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,500 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,500 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,500 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,500 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,500 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    listed $97,500 Active 807-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    * * Investor Special! * * This two-story, three-bedroom, one-bath home features wood floors and charming woodwork, perfect for adding your personal touch. It also includes a large two-car detached garage. AUCTION! Do not email any offers, as the property is being sold via auction; all bids must be submitted online during the auction period. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyers premium pursuant to the Auction Terms & Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval. The property information provided is estimated and not guaranteed (including bedroom/bathroom count). Cash bids only, as you cannot access the unit. BIDDING STARTS 04/10/2026. The buyer's agent is to pay a $200 plus sales tax offer management fee at closing of an accepted offer.

17. 2004-08-11
    soldstatus $65,000
18. 2004-08-05
    soldstatus $65,000 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Ready for new family. 2 Story 3BR home with wood floors and charming wood work. Gas FP in LR has original mantle with mirror. Pocket doors open to a formal DR. Gas hot water heat. Large 2 car garage with coal furnace. Lock box on back door.

19. 2004-04-16
    historical 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Ready for new family. 2 Story 3BR home with wood floors and charming wood work. Gas FP in LR has original mantle with mirror. Pocket doors open to a formal DR. Gas hot water heat. Large 2 car garage with coal furnace. Lock box on back door.

20. 2004-02-02
    listed $65,000 240-char remark

    Show marketing remark (240 chars)

    Ready for new family. 2 Story 3BR home with wood floors and charming wood work. Gas FP in LR has original mantle with mirror. Pocket doors open to a formal DR. Gas hot water heat. Large 2 car garage with coal furnace. Lock box on back door.

21. 2000-08-21
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,070 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,070 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥95°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$1,070
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $1,982
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$476
• After-tax cash flow: $2,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Mount Savage

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #320
• US rank: #16755

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Savage, MD
• Population (ZIP): 1,716

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Current HPI: 238.0426
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+107.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $97,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-05 Sold (MLS) $65,000 MRIS
• 2004-04-16 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-02-02 Listed $65,000 MRIS
• 2000-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,070 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.