615 N Church St

Starke, FL 32091

$162,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,048/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$850
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $467/mo
• Annual: $5,606/yr
• Cap rate: 9.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.36%
• DSCR: 1.55
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $45,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $162k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $467 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $162k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#336 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Bradford (town): math 43% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #57 of 73 in FL (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 93 units permitted in Bradford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bradford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.5% in Starke — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.