Heron Landing Plan

Canandaigua, NY 14424

$124,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 874 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $1,227/mo
• Annual: $14,721/yr
• Cap rate: 35.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.15%
• DSCR: 5.68
• 1% rule: 3.98%
• Cash to close: $14,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• It's been on market 874 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #519 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 35.7% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 874 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Roof — No photos of roof, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major: Exterior — No photos of exterior, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major: Interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major: HVAC/mechanical — No photos of HVAC/mechanical, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.