Heron Landing Plan · Canandaigua, NY 14424

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 874 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 874 days

🏗️ New construction. The $124,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $50,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.7% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman) (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #519 of 590 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 874 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $109,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 874 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.15%
• DSCR: 5.68
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,000
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: 149.80%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 Mountain Ash Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	15mo	$73,500	$53	69
218 Crabapple	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+8%)	18mo	$40,000	$27	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $80,578
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.63×
• Total profit: $218,766
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $1,227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,261	-5% $1,244	+0% $1,227	+5% $1,209	+10% $1,192
Rent	-10% $1,070	-5% $1,148	+0% $1,227	+5% $1,305	+10% $1,384
Rate	-1.0pp $1,252	-0.5pp $1,239	base $1,227	+0.5pp $1,214	+1.0pp $1,201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 874 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 873 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 872 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 871 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 869 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $124,900 Active 866 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 865 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 864 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 863 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 860 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 859 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 858 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 857 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 856 DOM
15. 2024-01-26
    listed $124,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $14,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,553
• After-tax cash flow: $11,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including roof, exterior, and interior wall repairs. Immediate updates to the HVAC and painting will significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Roof — No photos of roof, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major Exterior — No photos of exterior, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of interior walls/paint, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.
• Major HVAC/mechanical — No photos of HVAC/mechanical, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Replace HVAC filters — Clean air is essential for tenant comfort and health, and a well-maintained HVAC system can attract higher rental rates.
• Both Inspect and repair roof and exterior — A structurally sound roof and exterior can prevent costly repairs and improve the home's overall appearance.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Roof · No photos of roof, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of exterior, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of interior walls/paint, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanical · No photos of HVAC/mechanical, but given the lack of other photos, it's likely in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Replace HVAC filters — Clean air is essential for tenant comfort and health, and a well-maintained HVAC system can attract higher rental rates. ↑
• Both Inspect and repair roof and exterior — A structurally sound roof and exterior can prevent costly repairs and improve the home's overall appearance. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gorham-Middlesex Central School District (Marcus Whitman)
• NCES district ID: 3612300
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,088
• Composite: 34.33/100
• National rank: #5233
• State rank: #519 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-01-26 Listed $124,900 Zillow