449 W Sand

Caney, OK 74533

$135,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Built 2024 · Manufactured · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $815/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-289/mo
• Annual: $-3,466/yr
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (39.6% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $82k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#317 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Caney (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #179 of 513 in OK (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP.
• Atoka County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.