449 W Sand · Caney, OK 74533

$135,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2024 9,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand-New Dual Home Investment Opportunity! Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own two brand-new homes on one lot, perfect for investors or anyone looking to generate rental income! Both homes are new construction and have never been lived in, offering modern finishes and brand-new appliances. The property features: Home 1: 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom – spacious layout ideal for a small family or long-term rental Home 2: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom – perfect for a single tenant or couple. Each home comes equipped with new appliances, fresh interiors, and low-maintenance living. With two separate residences on one lot, this property offers excellent income potential—li

Key facts

• 9,000 sq ft lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 96 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single wide manufactured home; 1 story; Faces west; New construction
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Manufactured construction; Tie-down foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Partial fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Electric oven connection; Electric range connection
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $93k (31.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $82k (39.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#317 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Caney (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #179 of 513 in OK (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Atoka County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,536 (39.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.17%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,021
• Equity at exit: $70,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $40,122
• Equity at exit: $116,795

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74533

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $-289

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $93,207

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-196	-5% $-242	+0% $-289	+5% $-335	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-321	+0% $-289	+5% $-257	+10% $-224
Rate	-1.0pp $-221	-0.5pp $-254	base $-289	+0.5pp $-324	+1.0pp $-359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$783
• − Management: −$783
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$5,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caney
• NCES district ID: 4006420
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,349
• Composite: 31.98/100
• National rank: #11026
• State rank: #179 of 513 in OK

Livability — Caney

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #18245

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Caney, OK
• City population: 1,499
• Population (ZIP): 902

Population outlook (Atoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,004 people
• By 2030: 12,522 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 11,595 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 10,709 · -17.6%
• By 2075: 8,957 · -31.1%
• By 2100: 7,452 · -42.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Native American 12% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: European 7% Lithuanian 2% Scottish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atoka

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.6) · D 13.8% · R 85.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.7pp toward R · 2008: -43.9pp · 2024: -71.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.6 2020: R+70.4 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.25%
• Current HPI: 223.7422
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $135,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

-13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $28 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.