815 Anthony Dr

Lindenhurst, NY 11757

$494,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,339 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,591
• Tax + insurance: −$879
• HOA: −$250
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$919
• Net cashflow: $-260/mo
• Annual: $-3,126/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $138,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $494k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $456k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $438k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($479k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $438k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#260 in NY, #4,112 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Lindenhurst Union Free School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #139 of 590 in NY (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harding Avenue School (math 64% / reading 84%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 303 students, 38% FRL); Lindenhurst Middle School (math 45% / reading 62%, grade C+, #228 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 1,284 students, 44% FRL); Lindenhurst Senior High School (math 86% / reading 95%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,897 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 21% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lindenhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.