815 Anthony Dr · Lindenhurst, NY 11757

$494,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,339 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1989 7,505 sqft lot Est $781k · 37% under $250/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bank owned property, sold As Is. Property is located in Shore Park Estates HOA. Amenities include private beach and marina.

Key facts

• 7,505 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property subtype: Single Family Residence
• HOA & community: Has association; Monthly association fee of $250; Association amenities include a boat dock and clubhouse; Association fee covers other items

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage and driveway; 2-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Public water connected; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction; Other construction materials; Crawl space foundation; Built prior to or in public records (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Cul-de-sac lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 10 (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating; Other heating
• Interior features: Other interior features; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $494k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $456k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $438k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $438k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lindenhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#260 in NY, #4,112 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Lindenhurst Union Free School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #139 of 590 in NY (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Harding Avenue School (math 64% / reading 84%, grade A, #314 of 2,108 statewide, top 17%, 303 students, 38% FRL); Lindenhurst Middle School (math 45% / reading 62%, grade C+, #228 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 1,284 students, 44% FRL); Lindenhurst Senior High School (math 86% / reading 95%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,897 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 21% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($479k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $437,845 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $781,226
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
891 S Bay St	0.09mi	4/2.0	2,199 (-6%)	3mo	$450,000	$205	82
68 Knoll St	0.26mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,500 (+7%)	5mo	$650,000	$260	67
745 S 9th St	0.65mi	4/2.0	2,300 (-2%)	3mo	$620,000	$270	62
881 Surf St	0.09mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,000 (-14%)	4mo	$630,000	$315	61
815 S 4th St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-9%)	1mo	$780,000	$367	58
909 S 5th St	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,000 (-14%)	0mo	$960,000	$480	57
630 Shore Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,516 (+8%)	5mo	$740,000	$294	56
3 Garfield Pl	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,200 (-6%)	5mo	$785,000	$357	55
15 E Clearwater Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0	2,200 (-6%)	2mo	$735,000	$334	53
45 Inlet Dr	0.71mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,110 (-10%)	7mo	$923,500	$438	38
125 Spruce St	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,003 (-14%)	3mo	$810,000	$404	32
651 Madison Ave	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	2,000 (-14%)	7mo	$605,000	$303	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-96,386
• Equity at exit: $73,657

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-104,263
• Equity at exit: $42,712

Cash invested: $138,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11757

• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,591
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$618 /mo · $7,410/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$919
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,708

Max offer price $456,307

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $-90	+0% $-260	+5% $-431	+10% $-602
Rent	-10% $-606	-5% $-433	+0% $-260	+5% $-88	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $-12	-0.5pp $-135	base $-260	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-519

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,500
• Closing costs: $14,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
762 Pecan St Lindenhurst, NY	5.0	4.0	2970	$5,500	$1.85	0d	1	0.44mi
23 W Alhambra Ave Lindenhurst, NY	3.0	1.0	2070	$3,600	$1.74	0d	1	1.11mi
75 E Hoffman Ave Lindenhurst, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$4,750	$4.22	0d	1	1.38mi
223 Audley Ct Copiague, NY	3.0	1.0	2184	$3,500	$1.60	12d	1	1.42mi
125 W Hoffman Ave Lindenhurst, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$3,500	$1.75	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   listed $494,000 Active
3. 2018-11-06
   historical
4. 2018-10-01
   listed $399,000 New
5. 2018-09-30
   historical
6. 2018-05-07
   listed $399,000 New
7. 2018-04-29
   historical
8. 2017-12-12
   price $400,000
9. 2017-04-20
   listed $449,000 New
10. 2006-10-16
    soldstatus $608,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,672
• − Property taxes: −$7,410
• − Insurance: −$3,136
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,203
• − Management: −$4,203
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$14,371
• Taxable loss: −$11,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,749
• After-tax cash flow: $-377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindenhurst Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3617380
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $82,624
• Composite: 60.8/100
• National rank: #820
• State rank: #139 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lindenhurst

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #4112

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lindenhurst, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 44,413
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 44,413
• Household income: $127,889
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 8% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -743.47%
• Current HPI: 295.1742
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-18.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $494,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-01 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-07 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-12 Price Changed $400,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-20 Listed $449,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $608,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $34,002 · +38.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.