4095 Bleeker Rd

Vernon, NY 13477

$249,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,047/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-960/mo
• Annual: $-11,525/yr
• Cap rate: 1.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.47%
• DSCR: 0.27
• 1% rule: 0.42%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-960 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (64.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (58.1% below list).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $89k (64.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#685 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sherrill City School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #439 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Vernon-Verona-Sherrill Middle School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #473 of 729 statewide, top 66%, 278 students, 46% FRL); Vernon-Verona-Sherrill Senior High School (math 92% / reading 50%, grade B+, #701 of 1,100 statewide, top 64%, 563 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.