4095 Bleeker Rd · Vernon, NY 13477

$249,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1978 2.09 ac lot $240/sqft · 53% above area Est $326k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home situated on more than 2 acres in a beautiful country setting with peaceful field views both in front and behind the property. This solid home offers great bones and is ready for your cosmetic updates to make it shine. Hardwood floors run throughout the home beneath existing carpet, offering an exciting opportunity to restore their natural beauty. Large picture windows fill the home with natural light, while the sunny exposure helps warm the house even during the winter months. The home features a partially finished basement for added living or recreation space, and a welcoming family room complete with a bar and fireplace—perfect for entertaining o

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Country setting
• Field views

Tags

• COUNTRY SETTING
• FIELD VIEWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• BACK DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Detached garage; Four garage spaces; Heated garage; Garage with electricity; Garage storage; Workshop in garage; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Cedar construction; Existing structure; Block foundation
• Construction: Built (existing); Cedar exterior; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Propane tank (leased); Pool house

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Freezer; Microwave; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total; One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Ductless cooling; Ductless heating; Electric heating; Oil heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Combined living and dining area; Sliding glass door(s); Bar; Bedroom on main level; Programmable thermostat; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Propane water heater; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-960 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $89k (64.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (58.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (64.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#685 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Sherrill City School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #439 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $89,498 (64.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.47%
• DSCR: 0.27
• GRM: 19.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,341
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -23.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

8.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $55,828
• Equity at exit: $204,750

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $208,885
• Equity at exit: $421,519

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13477

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 19.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,475/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-960

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $89,498

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-819	-5% $-890	+0% $-960	+5% $-1,031	+10% $-1,102
Rent	-10% $-1,043	-5% $-1,002	+0% $-960	+5% $-919	+10% $-878
Rate	-1.0pp $-835	-0.5pp $-897	base $-960	+0.5pp $-1,025	+1.0pp $-1,091

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,900 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    listed $249,900 Active 1577-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,475 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,475 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,475
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$16,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,945
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherrill City School District
• NCES district ID: 3626760
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,927
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3888
• State rank: #439 of 590 in NY

Livability — Vernon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #685
• US rank: #12950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,468

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Romanian 9% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.86%
• Current HPI: 376.9011
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $249,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,475 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.