2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,188 sqft ·
Built 1991
· Manufactured
· Active
· 61 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,641/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$184
Tax + insurance
−$58
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$345
Net cashflow
$1,055/mo
Annual
$12,654/yr
Cap rate
42.45%
Cash-on-cash
129.12%
DSCR
6.75
1% rule
4.69%
Cash to close
$9,800
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $30k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 42.4% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior siding
— Severe weathering and peeling
Major: interior walls
— Worn carpet and outdated wallpaper
Major: kitchen cabinets
— Outdated and in poor condition
Major: bathroom fixtures
— Outdated and in poor condition
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and in poor condition
CashFlowRE · CFR-V5C7Y05HART4R2
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29