7009 Karen Ln

Burleson, TX 76058

$150,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $501/mo
• Annual: $6,010/yr
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.31%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caddo Grove El (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 595 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 45% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Joshua ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.