7009 Karen Ln · Burleson, TX 76058

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1998 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special or first time homebuyers! This property has been continually rented, and it is now available for purchase. You will find a very well-maintained property which is a proven income producing property. The square footage is small but the three bedroom, 2 bathroom home is efficient, well laid-out and perfect for a small family. The property is newly painted and ready for a new owner. The grassed backyard is ideal for pets or could be used as a play area. The property provides excellent access to the Chisholm Trail Tollway and makes your commute to the Metroplex a breeze. This property has been very well taken care of and will provide an excellent opportunity to the buyer. It's m

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• New exterior paint
• Fully skirted

Tags

• GRASSED BACKYARD
• MOVE-IN READY
• NEW EXTERIOR PAINT
• FULLY SKIRTED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Multi-parcel property
• Financial info: Accepts cash, 1031 exchange, and VA loan; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Aerobic septic; Co-op electric; Co-op water; Outside city limits
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One story; Not attached; Subdivision: Walden Estates
• Construction: Built in 1998
• Exterior features: Interior lot; Large backyard with grass; All-weather road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in cabinets; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks, and walk-in closet; Second bedroom with walk-in closet; Third bedroom on main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Walk-in closets; One living area; One dining area; 7 total rooms; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry with built-in cabinets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in Burleson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#53 in TX, #2,133 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Joshua ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #139 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caddo Grove El (math 36% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 595 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 45% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Joshua ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.31%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7112 Walden Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+3%)	21mo	$87,500	$70	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,521
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $47,337
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $357/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,113

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7700 Stanley Ct Unit 7700 Joshua, TX	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,695	$1.25	24d	1	1.01mi
7731 Stanley Ct Joshua, TX	4.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	22d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $357 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,388/yr (+$199/mo · 668.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,958
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$357
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,677
• − Management: −$1,677
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$896
• After-tax cash flow: $5,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Joshua ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824930
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,696
• Composite: 44.65/100
• National rank: #2769
• State rank: #139 of 826 in TX

Livability — Burleson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #2133

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 81,549
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $150,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $357 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.